Saturday, April 24, 2010

Key to 2010 Playoffs?

Seeing as the Utah Jazz are the only true professional sports team in Utah, I do not really have a choice in supporting them. They have repeatedly disappointed me by failing to show up for the big games but have mostly been competitive. This year, despite my instincts and common sense telling me otherwise, I have an inkling of hope. Why? One man - Kyrylo Fesenko.

 Fes!

Fesenko is anything but an all-star, gathering only a handful of minutes all year. During these minutes he normally was paired with Kosta Koufos to form one of the most humourously uncoordinated and whitest frontcourts the NBA has ever seen while averaging 2.6 ppg / 1.8 RPG / .4 blocks a game. He would hardly seem like the type of player you want to depend on during the most important time of year.....so why am I?

The whitest frontcourt duo in the NBA. To be fair, they are probably the ones who knocked Milsap down in the first place.

The answer lies in the person that he is replacing: Mehmet Okur. Here is a summary of Okur's Home/Away splits for 2009 and his career.


 While this is only a snapshot of information, it is clear that he is a much better offensive threat at home than on the road. In fact, I would wager he is well aware of this and stays a bit closer to the hoop while on the road to grab an extra rebound or two every few road games.

Okur is a slow Small Forward stuck in a Center's body. This has worked to his advantage thus far in his career because it has allowed him to surive despite being slow and athletically unremarkable. It has also allowed him to typically be guarded by the opposing team's Center, meaning he normally can take 3's with little challenge. His lack of defense is more easily concealed because the majority of Centers in the NBA are not offensive wizards and he is known as an offensive player. Plus he plays for the Jazz, who believe in simply fouling a player instead of guarding him.


Look at that lift!

Why does that matter? In the playoffs, this type of player will kill you. With a partially gimpy Okur spending a good portion of the each offensive/defensive possession more than 15 feet away from the basket, the Jazz are left without their normally tallest player anywhere near the basket for rebounds/defense/easy buckets. This opens up the lanes for opposing players to get close to the hoop, either getting great looks at the basket or drawing fouls from a delayed defense. Add to the fact that Boozer has been bothered by a sore rib,  rebounding and interior defense greatly suffer.

Could this be the moment that saved the Jazz's season?

Enter the Fes. At 7'1" and 300 lbs, he is a large body to have occupying the middle of the floor. On the offensive end, he spends the majority of his time hovering around the basket either looking for easy layups or rebounds. At the defensive end, he is quick enough (compared to Okur) to get down the court and clog the lanes. Cutting players no longer have open lanes but a towering, aggressive white dude interrupting their shot. A major improvement over Okur's recent performance. Additionally, when he does inevitably get into foul trouble, Sloan will play Boozer and Millsap together much more regularly than he has in the past.


Someone tall, near the basket and with his arms up in a Jazz uni? Must not be Boozer or Okur.

Fesenko will not single handily carry the Jazz through the first round and beyond, but he gives them a better chance than Okur did prior to the injury. Even after AK comes back, Fes' size, presence and energy should provide valuable help to the Jazz without the drain of an expected amount of shots or minutes.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Early 2nd Round Thoughts

The second round is only about 10 picks in but I wanted to post my early thoughts...

-Koa Misi goes to the team that provides the best fit. In the 3-4, he will be a rushing OLB in the Ware and Merriman mold. Great pick by the Dolphins.

Watch out AFC East, Misi is coming!

-Baltimore Ravens selecting Sergio Kindle, OLB Texas. This player dropped out of the first round and went to a team that will get the most out of his abilities. He will have a chance to learn from Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and all the other members of the solid Ravens defense.

-Rob Gronkowski to the Patriots. I really don't like this pick, it goes back to my adversion of using a high draft pick on a player that missed the entire previous year. The Patriots have gone from being the best drafting NFL team to league average. Waste of a pick this high.

-Zane Beadles to the Broncos. I am biased, but he will be a solid guard for 10 years in the league.

-I do not understand the "guest" pick announcers, whether they be hall of famers or current players. Add the fact that the analysts continue to talk over each other and offer redundant opinions and the NFL draft may have finally jumped the shark....I will keep watching though, I just am aware of the inferior product.

PREDICTION- Arizona is on the clock, I bet they take Clausen. (Nope!)

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Round 1 Thoughts

That was an exciting first round, though having 5 different people commenting is a bit ridiculous. Lets sum up the action in my own words...


I think Gruden liked Tebow.....a lot.

Mel Kiper: Jimmy Clausen really is a top 5 talent, just like Boomer Esiason was when Cincy drafted him in 1984.

Jon Gruden: Tim Tebow should be the top player taken based on intangibles.

Steve Young: San Francisco is commited to Alex Smith. Two offensive lineman? They want him to succeed.

Tom Jackson: I don't know what to make of Tim Tebow. To win in the NFL, you have to comlete passes.

Chris Berman: A trade? I didn't see that coming.

Mel Kiper: Clausen is really good, he really is.

Jon Gruden: I got fired, but I have a good sense of humor. As a former coach, I can tell you that Tim Tebow will be a great pro.

Steve Young: I want to talk over everyone because I am at the center of the table.

Tom Jackson: I still have no definitive opinion.

Chris Berman: I used to be the main draft expert, now I am almost off the screen.

Mel Kiper: CLAUSEN! WHY WON'T YOU LISTEN TO ME!

Jon Gruden: Tim Tebow. Me like Tim Tebow. Tebow....Tebow.

That was a very long example of how dumb and circular the most football dialogues are, especially when networks try to jam WAY too many big names on the screen at one time. You end up with the stalwarts (Jackson,Berman and Kiper) being shoved to the side while the younger Gruden and Young fought for the last word. I literally heard Steve Young say a last second prediction of the pick while the commissioner was walking to the podium 5 different times. He couldn't help himself.

1st Round Thoughts

-The 49ers had a great 1st round. I am a dedicated believer that the offensive line is the most important unit on a football team. By adding a borderline pro bowl talent RT in Davis and the extremely promising utility OL Iupati to a line featuring last year's 1st round pick LT Joe Staley, this team should be able to start playing the power running football that coach Singletary loves. This can only help Alex Smith try and revive an underwhelming career as teams might actually be forced to put 8 defenders in the box to stop Gore/Coffee.

-Mike Brown hates his own team. With their first round pick, Cincinnati picks Jermaine Greshman out of Oklahoma. He must have had an amazing 2009 right? No, he was out all year with an injury. This pick violated 2 seemingly simple draft rules: Never draft a TE in the first round unless he is guaranteed to be among the top 4-5 TE in the league and NEVER draft a player who didn't play the year before. This pick was not criticized by all the talking heads but I hate it. Why not pick up more defensive help (Mays S USC, DE/OLB Hughes etc etc) and grab a TE like Pitta in the 3rd or 4th round? Awful. This is why being a Bengals fan sucks the fun out of the NFL.


The closest Jermaine got to the field in 2009.


- The overall production of the show was horrible. Not only did I see multiple Eagles' fans flipping everyone off on air, I heard comments/actions from analysts Gruden and Jackson that were obviously not meant to be on the air. The first day of the draft is meant to be a circus, but did it really need to only be 1 round just to drag it into a 3 day event? 1 round? 1? Also, how about you show the player who is about to be drafted on the phone and wearing a team's hat 3 minutes before the pick is announced? That isn't anti-climatic.Very disappointing presentation.

-The only positive aspect of the presentation was the deployment of the sideline reporters to interview prospects. The questions are always pointless and often times redundant. The race for "best" interview was a tie between 1)Sam Bradford getting asked to describe his feelings immediately after he stated that he was "feeling nervous" and 2) Jimmy Clausen, a pool and Erin Andrews all being in close proximity in the one interview that you had a feeling could continue off camera and result in Andrew's resignation and Clausen publicly condoning his own actions.


Erin Andrews as seen through a legit camera.


2nd Round predictions

-The Browns will draft Colt McCoy if possible. He is accurate (70% or so completion percentage last year), confident, successful (45-7 all time, an NCAA record) and relatively mobile. He is Jake Plummer with a baby face. Mike Holgrem's only struggle will be with drafting a QB prior to the 5th round. Look it up, he loves late round QBs.

-The Chiefs will draft Clausen if possible. The Weis/Clausen connection is too perfect. I am rooting for this, the humor of the duo going from the storied Notre Dame to the mess in KC is epic.

 -Pittsburg will draft Tony Pike or Levi Brown, spurning dozens of Big Ben trade rumors. This probably really won't happen but I wish it would. If any team would kick a 28-yeard old, 2 time super bowl winning QB to the curb due to extremely stupid off-field behavior, the Steelers would. No matter how much I dislike the team, I have to respect them.


This dude wins super bowls?


Finally, my Bengals will somehow end up drafting Terrence Cody out of Oklahoma. Just look at the picture to see if you can figure out why that would be a bad idea....

Future Bengal

No matter what flaws I find in the programming decisions, I still love the draft and will watch as much of it as I can. The only thing that could get me to turn it off would be another stupid Bengal's decision (see paragraph above). So if anyone wants to tell me what happens after the Bengal's 2nd round pick, be my guest....

Happy Drafting!

NFL Draft 2010

Tonight marks the start of one of the most beautiful nights of any calendar year...the NFL draft. While I enjoy the NFL as a league, it is far below my love of College Football (Utah Utes!). My joy of watching the NFL draft is not found in the hope that my team (Cincy Bengals) get better, because they won't, but in watching players i am familiar with get drafted. In many strange male ways, it is like watching a child's graduation and progression.

Here are the players I am most interested in with my guess as to where they end up:

Zane Beadles OG (Pittsburg)
David Reed WR (Tampa Bay)
Koa Misi LB (Miami)
Dennis Pitta (Cincy)
Max Hall (Utah Blaze, I strongly dislike him)

Ever year, I attempt to identify players that I think will be extremely overrated and players who I think will turn out to be very good professionals. Here are a few of my guesses.

Overrated
Sam Bradford- With his injury history and lack of experience in a pro offense, Bradford will be in over his head as the likely 1st pick of the St Louis Rams. The pressure to start him immediately will be too much and he will find himself on the field much sooner than he should. His only hope is to be drafted by a team that can afford to sit him for 2 years under a veteran QB (Washington).

CJ Spiller - I really like him as a player, but his ceiling as a professional is similar to Reggie Bush. That isn't a bad player at all, but not a player worthy of a likely top 10-15 pick.

Bruce Campbell - This one is hardly a reach, but this workout monster looks the part while not performing like it. Someone will fall in love with his measurables and overdraft for him (Oakland anybody??) and be disappointed when he ends up a league average RT.

Underrated
Jerry Hughes- My only real caution with this is that he needs to go into the right system. If he goes into Miami or a similar system, he is capable of being an immediate contributor with double digit sacks.

Mike Iupati- This is a tough call because his name has been rising on most draft boards. I never understood why OG are constantly undervalued. I realize OG is not as valuable as OT, but a pro bowl guard is more valuable than a league average left tackle. Add to the fact that he has the flexibility to possibly be a league average tackle or better and he could be a steal.

That are just some random musings. I will try to update this after the first round. Since nobody is ready this anyway, I don't think it will be a problem.